Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before June 6? | The Motley Fool (2024)

Nvidia's earnings report was jam-packed with positive information, but perhaps the most important detail surrounds an important date this month.

The time has come: Nvidia's (NVDA 1.25%) long-awaited first-quarter report rounded out an exciting earnings season for artificial intelligence (AI) investors.

Indeed, revenue is soaring thanks to surging demand for Nvidia's H100, A100, and new Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs). Even better? The company's pricing power is helping Nvidia achieve consistent margin expansion and profitability.

Nvidia is currently riding a once-in-a-generation growth wave. There's so much information packed into their earnings report, it's easy to become distracted by the latest record the company posted.

While the financial performance is undoubtedly impressive, there was one part of the earnings report that really caught my eye: Nvidia announced a 10-for-1 stock split.

According to the earnings release, investors owning shares of Nvidia as of market close on June 6 will be eligible for split-adjusted shares.

Let's break down how stock splits work, and explore why scooping up shares of Nvidia now could be a good idea.

How do stock splits work?

Stock splits are a form of financial engineering. When a company splits its stock, two important things happen.

First, the number of outstanding shares increases by the ratio proposed in the split. Second, since the number of outstanding shares rises, the stock price subsequently drops by the same ratio.

If Nvidia's 10-for-1 split were to go into effect today, anyone owning Nvidia stock would receive nine additional shares for every one share that they own. But at the same time, your average cost per share would be reduced by a factor of 10.

Since the share count and the stock price change by the same ratio, the market cap for Nvidia theoretically remains unchanged.

However, this is seldom the case. Let's take a look at Nvidia's stock-split history.

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before June 6? | The Motley Fool (1)

Image source: Getty Images.

Has Nvidia split its stock before?

Nvidia has completed five stock splits since going public. The last time Nvidia split its stock was July 20, 2021.

The chart below illustrates movements in Nvidia stock 30 days after completing its 4-for-1 split in July 2021.

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before June 6? | The Motley Fool (2)

NVDA data by YCharts

The last time Nvidia split its stock, investors enjoyed nearly a 12% return in just one month following the split. By the end of December 2021, Nvidia stock had rallied an eye-popping 58% from the day it split in July.

Is now a good time to buy Nvidia stock?

Generally speaking, trading activity increases when a company conducts a stock split. The reason is because even though the split does not inherently change the valuation of the company, shares are perceived as less expensive.

In other words, since a split forces the stock price to go down, many investors think the stock is on sale and that they are taking advantage of a cheaper price. This is not the case, and it's all psychological.

Now, with Nvidia stock trading over $1,000 per share, it's likely that many retail investors view the stock as expensive. But keep in mind, even though the post-split price for Nvidia stock would be roughly $100, the charts above point out that stock-split stocks can experience outsize momentum. This means prices can rise sharply in a short period of time, and investors are actually buying shares at a higher valuation compared to pre-split levels.

Since Nvidia's last split in July 2021, shares have rallied more than 450%. This abnormally high return has catapulted Nvidia to the world's third most valuable business -- only behind Microsoft and Apple.

This is where valuation analysis becomes important. Right now, Nvidia stock trades at a price-to-free-cash-flow multiple of 66. This might seem high, even for a growth stock. However, this is actually materially lower than Nvidia's average over the last three and five years.

Moreover, Nvidia's closest rival, Advanced Micro Devices, trades at a price-to-free-cash-flow ratio of 230x. Considering AMD isn't growing anywhere near commensurate rates to that of Nvidia, I'd say that Nvidia stock looks more attractive.

While Nvidia stock might appear pricey, the analyses above illustrate that the company is actually trading at a more normalized level compared to its biggest competitor. Moreover, given the historical trends from Nvidia's last stock split, I'm fairly confident that the stock could witness some newfound attention following the split.

For these reasons, I'd encourage investors to consider scooping up shares in Nvidia stock before June 6. While it may be tempting to flip shares for a quick profit following the split, the return over the last few years speaks for itself.

Investors should employ a long-term time horizon and allow the day traders to enter and exit around the time of the split. The longer-term themes showcase that buying shares before a split and holding them for several years is the superior strategy.

Adam Spatacco has positions in Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before June 6? | The Motley Fool (2024)

FAQs

Is it a good time to buy Nvidia stock? ›

In 2023, AI stock Nvidia had a huge 239% run and it's up more than 190% so far this year. Nvidia is past a profit-taking zone from a split-adjusted buy point of 97.40. It's best now to wait for another base or follow-on buy point to make an initial position in the AI chip stock. It is not a buy right now.

What is the stock price prediction for NVDA tomorrow? ›

The NVIDIA stock forecast for tomorrow is $ 133.14, which would represent a 0.57% gain compared to the current price. In the next week, the price of NVDA is expected to decrease by -9.10% and hit $ 120.35.

What is the Nvidia forecast for 2024? ›

In 2024, Nvidia has leapfrogged Alphabet and Amazon to stand as the world's third most valuable company, trailing only Apple ($3.30 trillion) and Microsoft ($3.25 trillion).

How much will Nvidia stock be worth in 5 years? ›

Multiplying the projected earnings with Nvidia's five-year average forward earnings multiple of 39 suggests that its stock price could hit $2,266 per share (barring any stock splits or other events) after five years. That would translate into a jump of 162% from current levels.

What is a fair price for Nvidia stock? ›

As of 2024-06-18, the Fair Value of NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) is 43.29 USD. This value is based on the Peter Lynch's Fair Value formula. With the current market price of 130.98 USD, the upside of NVIDIA Corp is -66.9%.

Is Nvidia a buy zacks? ›

The financial health and growth prospects of NVDA, demonstrate its potential to underperform the market. It currently has a Growth Score of A. Recent price changes and earnings estimate revisions indicate this stock lacks momentum and would be a lackluster choice for momentum investors.

Why has Nvidia stock gone down? ›

An awful lot of growth is priced into the stock's valuation: Nvidia is trading at 76 times its earnings over the past 12 months. On a forward price-to-earnings basis, it trades at a multiple of 34 times. That means Nvidia is under pressure to keep up its record of reporting significantly higher earnings than expected.

What is the highest NVIDIA stock price ever? ›

Historical daily share price chart and data for NVIDIA since 1999 adjusted for splits and dividends. The latest closing stock price for NVIDIA as of June 17, 2024 is 130.98. The all-time high NVIDIA stock closing price was 131.88 on June 14, 2024.

What is the average return for NVDA? ›

Returns By Period

NVIDIA Corporation had a return of 166.34% year-to-date (YTD) and 209.29% in the last 12 months. Over the past 10 years, NVIDIA Corporation had an annualized return of 75.99%, outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark which had an annualized return of 10.77%.

Should I hold Nvidia stock? ›

Based on analyst ratings, Nvidia's 12-month average price target is $126.93. Currently there's no upside potential for NVDA, based on the analysts' average price target. Nvidia has a consensus rating of Strong Buy which is based on 37 buy ratings, 3 hold ratings and 0 sell ratings.

Is Nvidia expected to go up? ›

After a brief downturn in 2022, Nvidia's price ground upwards throughout 2023 before surging into 2024. The stock was nudging at four figures per share by March, however, by June 7, the stock price had risen again with news that Nvidia had eclipsed Apple in value.

Is Nvidia splitting in 2024? ›

So if you held 10 NVDA shares before the split, you'll now hold 100 NVDA shares after the split. Shares will begin trading at their new split-adjusted price on Monday, June 10, 2024.

Will Nvidia stock ever go up again? ›

Statista.com predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 28.5% through 2030 for the entire AI market. If that growth rate holds, it would take roughly nine years for Nvidia's stock to reach $1,200 again.

Will Nvidia keep going up after stock split? ›

Nvidia was falling on Monday after its stock split, although two Wall Street analysts believe the chip maker's valuation will keep climbing. Nvidia's 10-for-1 stock split took effect after Friday's closing bell. The stock closed down 0.1% at $1208.88.

Is now a good time to buy stock? ›

Stock prices have surged significantly over the past 18 months. The S&P 500 is up by 45% since it bottomed out in October 2022, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has soared by a whopping 58% in that time. Investing now, then, means paying much higher prices than you would if you'd bought a year or two ago.

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