Today's breakdown of MLB sides features the New York Mets looking to stay hot in Texas, while windy Wrigley might not be all it's cracked up to be.
Play 1: Texas Rangers vs. New York Mets – Mets Moneyline (-108) FanDuel
The New York Mets have been ripping the cover off the ball over the last month, and it continued Monday night at home in their 14-2 thrashing of the Texas Rangers. Winners of six straight and 10 out of their last 12, the Amazins' are up to 34-37 and a mere game out of the wild card.
Over the last 30 days, the Mets offense is fourth in ISO at .181 and first in wOBA at .344. Again: Ripping the cover off the ball.
The pitching has struggled to keep up with the torrid pace of the batters, but the team xFIP over the last month -- 3.96 -- is safely in the middle of the major league pack.
On Tuesday, the Mets will look to keep it going, once again taking on the Rangers in Arlington, and the matchup certainly leans in favor of the visiting team.
Luis Severino will be taking the ball for the Mets, and he has made what appears to be a full and complete comeback after battling injuries since 2019.
While he's not the strikeout pitcher he once was -- he's averaging 6.9 K/9 this year, down from his 2017 rate of 10.7 K/9 -- he has become even more of a groundball-leaning pitcher who gets a ton of weak contact.
Opposing batters are barreling at a miniscule 4.4% against Severino this year, and he's getting ground balls at a 52.9% clip.
Looking at the Rangers lineup, Corey Seager -- who hits the ball in the air, and hits it hard -- seems like the only true danger for Severino tonight.
Meanwhile, the Mets are facing righty Michael Lorenzen, who has been more of a reverse splits pitcher in his career, and it's even more pronounced so far this year.
Of course, the Mets' righty contingent, led by Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, and Starling Marte, can pounce on anyone, and Lorenzen may find himself facing up to seven righties in total.
Add in the fact that the Rangers' bullpen has been busy of late, and the Mets look primed to keep their winning ways rolling.
Play 2: Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants – Under 9.5 (-102) DrafKings
Here's the deal: It will be 90 degrees with the wind blowing out to left at about 15MPH at Wrigley Field tonight.
Similar to conditions last night, when the Giants topped the Cubs 7-6.
So why go under the 9.5? Well, in order to score runs, teams have to get on base, and that job is going to be more difficult tonight with Logan Webb on the hill for the Giants and Justin Steele toeing the rubber for the hometown Cubbies.
Webb is doing what he always does: Getting ground balls at an absurd clip. This year, he's at 57%, a tick below his career average of 58%. And all his other numbers are right in line with his historical norms, though he is getting BABIP'ed at his highest rate ever, at .319.
In short: Webb is probably pitching better than he ever has, and while baseball is baseball and anything can happen, getting the ball up in the air against Webb is not an easy feat.
On the other side, lefty Justin Steele is proving last year was no fluke, as opposing batters have a .148 ISO and miniscule .284 wOBA against him this season.
While both the Giants and Cubs lineups are capable of mashing the ball, two well-above average pitchers -- no matter the weather conditions -- are a tough combo to bet the over against.
Play 3: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – Over 11.5 (+105) Caesars
Austin Gomber takes the mound for the Rockies tonight, which is probably reason enough to just blindly hit the over.
Between Gomber's less-than-stellar numbers -- .182 ISO and .331 wOBA -- and the fact the game is at Coors, a high-scoring game looks likely.
And of course, there's the Dodgers. Even without Mookie Betts, they plated nine runs against the Rockies Monday night and look to run it back this evening.
The Dodgers will probably send seven righties at the lefty Gomber. And then there's Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, a pair of lefties with matching .225 ISOs against southpaws.
In short: Gomber looks vulnerable tonight.
On the other side is Walker Buehler, who doesn't look all the way back from Tommy John surgery. He's also been getting walloped by lefties (small sample size alert, but still) this year, and the Rockies will be sending Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, a healthy Nolan Jones and a trio of other lefties to the plate this evening.
Buehler could obviously turn it on at any time, but on the road in Denver certainly doesn't seem like the time or place.
Combine it all, and the over is the place to be.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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